Automotive Forecasts

Morgan & Company, Inc. provides realistic automotive forecasts and the intelligence to assess the implications that affect your organization's sales and market share. The forecasts provide a seven-year outlook by manufacturer, platform, segment, and assembly plant location.

The forecast is provided as follows:

  • Single Issue—$700
  • Annual Subscription—Quarterly Updates—$2,400
  • Annual Subscription—Monthly Updates—$3,600
  • Reports are distributed in Excel (xls) and Adobe (pdf) format.

See the Price List/Order Form for further details: Order Form

North American Vehicle Forecast/Global Outlook Table of Contents

Executive Overview

  • Global—Notes/Commentary
  • Global—Production Overview & Outlook
  • Volume by Manufacturer—North America
  • Volume by Market Segment—North America
  • Volume by Assembly Location—North America

Sales & Production Charts

Sales and Production Charts for each industry segment and every nameplate are provided in a separate file and book.

Business Cycle & Economic Indicators

Vehicles by Manufacturer & Group

Vehicles by Platform Within Manufacturer

Vehicles by Market Segment

All Vehicles by Production/Assembly Plants

  • Nameplate Production
  • Straight-Time Capacity
  • Capacity Utilization Rates

All Vehicles—Production by Month Within Years

Chart Book

Sales & Production (19+ years) for each group and nameplate manufactured in North America.

January 30, 2012, Morgan & Company, Inc.

  • Our original forecast for 2011 US Auto Sales (January 2011) was 12.475 million.
  • 2011 ended up at 12.771 million, a variance of only 2.37%.
  • Our original forecast for 2011 NA Light Vehicle Production (January 2011) was 12.7 million. 2011 ended up at 13.1 million, a variance of 3.1%.
  • Light Vehicle Production excludes Heavy & Medium Commercial Trucks.

September 2012

North American Light Vehicle Production Forecast for 2012:

  • As of September—our outlook for 2012 NA vehicle production is 15,131,322, up 15.36% from a year ago.
  • Car Production = 6,794,339; up 21.41% from 2011.
  • Light Truck Production = 8,336,983; up 10.87% from 2011

January 2013

  • 2012 North American vehicle production totaled 15.435 million, up 17.7% from 13.116 million in 2011. The variance from the forecast stated above was 2.0%.
  • Our forecast for North American vehicle production in 2013 is 15.925 million.
  • 2013 US auto sales forecast is 15.327 million, up 5.9% from the 14.475 million in 2012.

January 2014

  • Our original forecast for 2013 NA Light Vehicle Production (January 2013) was 15.925 million. 2013 ended up at 16.138 million, a variance of just 1.3%.
  • Our original forecast for 2013 US Auto Sales was 15.327 million.
  • The year-end total was 15.569 million, a variance of only 1.6%.

January 31, 2014

  • 2014 Vehicle Production Forecast = 16.60 million, up 2.9% from 2013.
  • 2014 US Auto Sales Forecast = 16.25 million, up 4.4% from 2013.
  • Both figures exclude Medium & Heavy Commercial Trucks.
Manufacturing Cars

January 2015

  • Our original forecast for 2014 NA Light Vehicle Production (January 2014) was 16.60 million. 2014 ended up at 17.00 million, a variance of only 2.4%.
  • Our original forecast for 2014 US Auto Sales was 16.25 million.
  • The year-end total was 16.47 million, a variance of just 1.4%.
  • North American Light Vehicle Forecast for 2015 = 17.599 million.
  • US Auto Sales Forecast for 2015 = 17.005 million.
  • Both figures exclude Medium & Heavy Commercial Trucks.

January 2016

  • Our original forecast for 2015 NA Light Vehicle Production (January 2015) was 17.599 million. 2015 ended up at 17.490 million, a variance of only 0.62%.
  • Our original forecast for 2015 US Auto Sales was 17.005 million.
  • The year-end total was 17.428 million, a variance of 2.49%.
  • North American Light Vehicle Forecast for 2016 = 17,773,750
  • US Auto Sales Forecast for 2016 = 17,690,000
  • Both figures exclude Medium & Heavy Commercial Trucks.

January 7, 2017, US Auto Sales & North American Vehicle Production

  • Our original forecast for 2016 Auto Sales (January 2016) was 17,690,000.
  • The year-end total was 17,482,455, a variance of only 1.17%.

January 31, 2017

  • Our original forecast for 2016 Light Vehicle Production (January 2016) was 17,773,750.
  • The year-end total was 17,781,121—a variance of only 0.004%.

Near Term Forecast for the 2017 Calendar Year:

  • US Auto Sales Forecast for 2017 = 16,608,000, a decrease of 5.0% from the 2016 total.
  • North American Vehicle Production Forecast for 2017 = 17,318,000, a decrease of 2.6% from the 2016 total.

January 31, 2018, US Auto Sales & North American Vehicle Production

  • Our original forecast for 2017 Light Vehicle Production (January 2017) was 17,318,000.
  • The year-end total was 17,046,448—a variance of only 1.56%.
  • Our original forecast for 2017 US Auto Sales (January 2017) was 16,608,000.
  • The year-end total was 17,168,319—a variance of only 3.37%.

Near Term Forecast for the 2018 Calendar Year:

  • US Auto Sales Forecast for 2018 = 16,739,000 a decrease of 2.5% from the 2017 total.
  • North American Vehicle Production Forecast for 2018 = 16,831,750, a decrease of 1.26% from the 2017 total.

January 31, 2019, US Auto Sales & North American Vehicle Production

  • Our original forecast for 2018 Light Vehicle Production (January 2018) was 16,831,750.
  • The year-end total was 16,969,553—a variance of only 0.80%.
  • Our original forecast for 2018 US Auto Sales (January 2018) was 16,739,000.
  • The year-end total was 17,255,349—a variance of only 3.08%.

Near Term Forecast for the 2019/2020 Calendar Years:

  • North American Vehicle Production Forecast for 2019 = 16,755,625, a decrease of 1.25% from the 2018 total.
  • US Auto Sales Forecast for 2019 = 16,910,000, a decrease of 2.00% from the 2018 total.

2020—Prepare for a significant contraction for US Sales and NA Production; we currently see a further 6.16% reduction for NA production.

For information, including samples, contact us directly or by email.